By Richard A. Proctor

Probability and good fortune: The legislation of success, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling

The fake rules common between all periods of the neighborhood, cultured in addition to uncultured, respecting likelihood and success, illustrate the fact that universal consent (in issues outdoors the impression of authority) argues virtually of necessity blunders. This, incidentally, will be proved by means of the strategy of percentages. For if, in any query of trouble, the opportunity that a regular brain will omit the proper opinion is yet one-half-and this can be a lot underrating the opportunity of error-the likelihood that the bigger percentage of a neighborhood numbering many hundreds of thousands will pass judgement on rightly on this type of query is yet as one in lots of hundreds of thousands of thousands of thousands. (Those who're too able to attract the argument from universal consent, and at the energy of it occasionally to denounce or maybe afflict their fellow males, may still take this fact-for it truly is truth, no longer opinion-very thoughtfully to heart.)

I can't desire, then, on account that authority hasn't ever been on the pains to pronounce certainly on such questions respecting success and probability as are handled the following, that universal opinion, that's proclaimed regularly and loudly in want of religion in good fortune, will comfortably settle for the lessons i've got complicated, notwithstanding they be however the common-place of technological know-how in regard to the dependence of what's quite often known as success, strictly, and ultimately, uniformly, on legislations. The playing fraternity will proceed to proclaim their trust in success (though those that have proved profitable between them have on no account depended on to it), and the neighborhood on whom they prey will, for the main half, proceed to undergo the method of plucking, in complete trust that they're on their solution to fortune.

If a number of will probably be taught, via what i've got defined the following, to work out that during the long term even reasonable wagering and playing needs to bring about loss, whereas playing and wagering scarcely ever are reasonable, within the feel of being on even phrases, this publication could have served an invaluable function. I want i'll desire that it will serve the better function of revealing that every one sorts of playing and hypothesis are primarily immoral, and that, notwithstanding many that gamble aren't consciously wrong-doers, their very unconsciousness of evil exhibits an uncultured, semi-savage mind.

Richard A. Proctor.

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Additional info for Chance and Luck: The Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling

Example text

B’s stake after winning is always double the last stake, but after winning the amount just staked of course he must possess double that amount—since he has his winnings and also a sum at least equal, which he must have had when he wagered an equal stake. But when a player at the gaming-tables loses an event in one of his ventures, it by no means follows equally that the bank can continue to double (assuming the highest value allowed to have not been reached). Losses against other players may compel the bank to close when the system player has just lost a tolerably heavy coup.

But if, as more commonly is the case, the player’s stake formed a far larger proportion of his property, these odds would be immensely increased. If a player staked one-tenth of his money on each game against the same sum, supposed to be 1-160th of the bank’s GAMBLERS’ FALLACIES 30 money, the chances would be 223 to 1 that he would be ruined if he persisted long enough. In other words, his chance of escaping ruin would be the same as that of drawing one single marked ball out of a bag containing 224.

Three tickets are marked as winning tickets; A then draws at random once only; if he draws a marked ticket, he wins the pool; if he draws an unmarked ticket, B takes the pool. This is clearly fair; in fact it is only a modification of the preceding case. A takes the chances of three of the former players, while B takes the chances of the remaining seven. True, there seems to be a distinction. If we divided the former ten players into two sets, one of three, the other of seven, there would not be a single drawing to determine whether the prize should go to the three or to the seven; each of the ten would draw a ticket, all the tickets being thus drawn.

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Chance and Luck: The Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling by Richard A. Proctor


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