By Gudmund R. Iversen

ISBN-10: 0803923287

ISBN-13: 9780803923287

Empirical researchers, for whom Iversen's quantity offers an creation, have normally lacked a grounding within the method of Bayesian inference. hence, purposes are few. After outlining the constraints of classical statistical inference, the writer proceeds via an easy instance to give an explanation for Bayes' theorem and the way it will possibly conquer those boundaries. standard Bayesian functions are proven, including the strengths and weaknesses of the Bayesian technique. This monograph therefore serves as a significant other quantity for Henkel's exams of importance (QASS vol 4).

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Extra info for Bayesian Statistical Inference (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)

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To get a feeling for how sensitive this analysis is to the assumption of a known variance of b, we can try different values for this variance. 26. 28. 21. Thus the posterior mean does not change much, while the posterior standard deviation is more affected. Multiple Regression A multiple linear regression model with k explanatory variables is characterized by an intercept, a coefficient for each variable and the residual variance, for a total of k + 2 parameters. In theory, a Bayesian analysis calls 35 36 for a joint, prior distribution of all k + 2 parameters expressing whatever dependencies there might be between the parameters.

For a wide range of values of the posterior mean the numerator for the variance is essentially constant, and what matters for the variance is the size of the denominator. The denominator equals n + a + b + 1, where a + b is the effect of the prior distribution and n is the effect of the data. If a + b is small relative to n, then the prior distribution has very little effect on the posterior distribution. Note that we are talking about the sum a + b, not a and b separately. If n equals 1500 and a + b equals 30, the effect of the prior distribution is minimal, and it makes no difference for the denominator in the posterior variance whether the prior distribution is such that a equals 1 and b equals 29 or whether we have any other pair of values for a and b such that their sum equals 30.

This raises the two questions of whether there is something called complete ignorance and, if so, can such ignorance be expressed in a prior distribution. Personally I am completely ignorant about many things, and I expect I am not alone in that situation. But expressing complete ignorance in a prior distribution is another matter. A person may well say, "I have no idea what the value is of that regression coefficient. " Hidden in that statement is the notion of a rectangular distribution over the possible range of values for the unknown parameter.

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Bayesian Statistical Inference (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences) by Gudmund R. Iversen

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